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Australia’s comfortable win in the first of three home Tests against South Africa has put them in great stead to register their first home-series win over the opponents since 2005-06, after three failed attempts thereafter. The Boxing Day Test at the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground, beginning Monday, December 26, also holds great significance in context of the ongoing World Test Championship 2023 cycle, wherein Australia are currently placed at the top, while South Africa slipped a spot down to third following their first Test defeat and India’s win over Bangladesh.
The Australia fast-bowling trio of skipper Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Scott Boland relished the green top at The Gabba, while Nathan Lyon extracted turn and bounce with his accurate off-breaks to skittle out the visitors for 152 and 99 across just 86 overs combined in the two innings. They would be worried over David Warner’s form, though, whose wait for an elusive Test hundred continues in a rather disappointing year with the bat.
While the rest of the line-up has had success in recent times, they would be wary of the stiff challenge from South Africa speedsters, who challenged them across the two innings in Brisbane, managing to bag four wickets in a 34-run chase in the second.
As for the Proteas, the inexperience in the batting line-up puts great responsibility and pressure on skipper Dean Elgar and Temba Bavuma, but they would be encouraged by wicket-keeper Kyle Verreynne’s gritty first-innings 64 in the first Test. They could also consider getting in an additional spin-bowling option in Simon Harmer for Marco Jansen or Lungi Ngidi in their XI.
The bowling attack, led by the ferocious intensity of Kagiso Rabada and Anrich Nortje looks fierce as ever, the former reminding of his prowess with four-fers in either innings in Brisbane. South Africa had registered a nine-wicket win in their last Test appearance at the MCG – back in 2008 – with Dale Steyn starring with five-fors in either innings to help his side seal a series-clinching win.
The visitors would back their attack to replicate that magic, but they need substantial output from the creaking batting order to make it all count.
Key players
Travis Head was arguably the game-changer in the first Test, his counter-attacking 92 off 96 in a team-total of 218 helping Australia take a decisive 66-run lead in the first innings. Having scored a match-winning hundred in the fifth Ashes Test in Hobart at the start of the year, he began the home summer with scores of 99, 175 and 38*, and the recent knock against South Africa helped him overtake Joe Root, Rishabh Pant and Kane Williamson to take the fourth spot in the latest ICC Men’s Test Batting Rankings. In his last outing at the MCG – the third ODI against England last month – Head scored a stroke-filled 152, and thought the format changes, the approach is likely to remain the same.
Pat Cummins, who holds the top position in the ICC Men’s Test Bowling Rankings since August 2019, remains Australia’s premier quick, and he showed his class with seven wickets in Brisbane, including a second-innings five-for including the key wicket of Dean Elgar. Cummins has an impressive Test record against South Africa, with 36 wickets at 18.50 with three-five fors from six Tests. The first of those (6/79) had come in a winning cause on his debut at Wanderers, Johannesburg back in 2011.
The most experienced of South Africa batters, Dean Elgar holds the key to their overall success, and has been accustomed to scoring tough runs in challenging conditions in a transitioning period of the side. He had scored a game-setting 127 in the second innings of the first Test in Perth on the 2016-17 tour, and the team seeks a similar show with the series on the line this time around.
The match-up between Kagiso Rabada and David Warner was one of the most anticipated one in build-up to the series, and the South African won the battle in both innings of the first Test to set it up thereafter. His 4/13 in the second innings, followed by 4/76 in the first, kept Australia on toes, almost reviving hopes of an unlikely miracle. The right-arm quick has a highly impressive Test record, with 265 wickets at 22.12 and a scarcely believable strike-rate of 39.55.
Prediction
Australia’s recent dominance at home, the recency effect of the first Test and their superior overall team combination as compared to South Africa make them favourites to win the second Test and with it, seal the series. They would however, expect a stiff contest from the Proteas, given their brilliant fast-bowling attack and the team’s ability to bounce back even in the most challenging of situations.
The hosts have won seven of their last 11 Tests at the MCG – their only two defeats in the period (since 2011) coming against India in 2018 and 2020 respectively.
